Tuesday Trends: For Some, Next Year Starts Now

Vince Lombardi famously said, "I never lost a game.  I just ran out of time."

For the five NASL clubs who now know they won't be participating in The Championship (the league's four-team, three-match postseason tournament to decide the Soccer Bowl contestants 2014's ultimate title-holder), the season is not lost -- they just ran out of time.

Today, we are in the midst of the last week of the regular season.  Each of the 10 teams has endured a grueling 26 games in an effort to be among the final four standing.  Each has just one game left this year -- for half of them, one game left to build a little momentum heading into next year; for the other half, one game left to show they're worthy of entry into The Championship.

For five of these 10 -- Atlanta, Indy, Ottawa, Tampa Bay and Edmonton -- this weekend will be the players' last hurrah together on the field, and the technical staff's last chance to see what they have and figure out what they need for next season.

For the other five -- Minnesota, San Antonio, New York, Fort Lauderdale and Carolina -- this season is really just beginning. 

In next week's Tuesday Trends column, we'll take a closer look at the four clubs who will match up in The Championship.  Minnesota, San Antonio and New York are already in; Fort Lauderdale and Carolina will decide things this Saturday.

This week, we'll take a look at the five on the outside, synopsizing their valiant campaigns while pointing out what they did well and analyzing what they must do better -- so that in 2015, we might see them in an entirely new light.

First, a handful of the many #Fight4Fall tweets in recent weeks:

Now, a hearty handshake and a thanks-for-playing for the eliminated five, with a side order of analysis.  The arrows give the team's trend going into this off-season:

FC Edmonton

The Eddies really made a game out of it.  After a poor Spring Season and a hideous start to their Fall, FC Edmonton emerged to become a serious player in the race for a spot in The Championship.  In fact, of the five clubs to be mathematically eliminated from contention so far, Edmonton is the last.

There is much for Eddies fans to appreciate.  Only three other clubs can claim to have a better goal differential -- and those three are in The Championship.  The Eddies have surrendered barely more than one goal per game.  At home, Edmonton wone six of their nine matches this Fall.

But the fact is they didn't make it, though stats suggest they could have.  Why?

Offense.  Specifically, lack thereof.  In 17 of their 26 matches, Edmonton has managed at most one goal. Only last-place Atlanta scored less in 2014 than did Edmonton -- and only one less.  Take out a six-goal outburst in the last match of the Spring, and you're looking at the worst offense in the league.

Put firepower at the top of Edmonton's shopping list.

Nevertheless, the fact that the Eddies were in it till the bitter end -- with such offensive woes and so many early-season setbacks -- makes head coach Colin Miller say this:

"There are a lot of exciting times ahead....  The academy is going well, the first team is going well, we’re as stable as we’ve ever been and have fantastic ownership," he told the Edmonton Sun.  "I think it's a good time to be an Eddies fan."

Tampa Bay Rowdies 

It's kinda weird to be putting the Rowdies into this category.  Not just because they won it all just two years ago or they're one of the traditionally fine clubs in the NASL, but because for much of the #Fight4Fall, it was they -- not their Florida rivals in Fort Lauderdale -- who were in line for The Championship.

Not winning a single game since August will do that.

Injuries hurt.  Tampa Bay has been plagued by injury this Fall, especially back in the defense.  The result has been a club tied for the most goals allowed in 2014, including the most in a single game when San Antonio bludgeoned them for seven a couple weeks ago.

But the offense hasn't been exactly stellar either.  Only one man (Georgi Hristov) has scored more than three goals all year.  Like head coach Ricky Hill told the Tampa Bay Times, "Really no one has established themselves in that role of our goal-scorer.  It's not been for lack of effort. We've just been nowhere as prolific offensively as we've needed to be."

For Tampa Bay, much needs to be improved.  Get healthier, maybe get younger in the back, and get stronger up front, so that the ravages of a long season don't result in such a marked decline.

Ottawa Fury FC

Would you believe that, for a while during the #Fight4Fall, one of the hottest clubs in the NASL was an expansion side?

'Tis true.

Ottawa introduced itself rather admirably to the ranks of professional soccer in 2014.  Fury FC had a fair Spring Season and was having a fine Fall -- flirting with the impossible notion of making The Championship -- before a recent three-match skid put a halt to any thoughts of a beginner's-luck miracle.

Ottawa enters the final game of its first season having lost its last three.  But there's a bigger picture, and it shows that Ottawa -- with a bit more tinkering -- can become a legitimate contender in this league sooner rather than later.

Ten of Fury's 14 losses in 2014 have been by a single goal.  Their goal differential of -4 puts them in the middle of the pack.  Several of their defeats came in a game's final moments.  Moral victories are nowhere near enough, of course, but re-signing captain Richie Ryan shows that the front office sees something it likes too.

Not that changes aren't in the works -- head coach Marc Dos Santos said as much to the Ottawa Sun.  But for a first-year club putting soccer's stamp on a new region, there is cause for optimism about the future of the NASL in the Canadian capital.

Indy Eleven

A little sibling rivalry showed itself when Indy went up to Ottawa last weekend.  In a fierce affair with some pushing and shoving, Eleven defeated Fury for the first time in their three meetings.  At the moment, the two 2014 expansion sides have an identical total in the points column.

Inevitably, for the first few years at least, these two newborn clubs will be judged against each other.  Right now, it's hard to say who's got the advantage.

Indy is ending its first year with some very strong results.  Not only did the Eleven upend Ottawa for the first time, they also finally earned their first ever victory in front of their home fans -- against top-seed Minnesota, no less.

No big deal.  They followed that up with a shutout win over second-seed San Antonio.  In fact, in the past month, Indy's schedule has been a murder's row consisting of the five clubs still in the running for the Soccer Bowl.  Indy defeated two of them, tied another and lost by just a single goal to the other two.

Like their expansion brethren, perhaps Indy too is showing that it can be a significant player in the NASL as soon as 2015.

The Eleven has eight ties in 2014, second-most in the league.  On eight other occasions, they've lost by one -- only four times fallingy by more than one.  The roster is a mix of veteran experience and young talent, and the Indianapolis market has shown -- with 14 consecutive sellouts -- full-throated support.

"It's nice to see these guys get rewarded for their work...the guys have just executed," Eleven coach Juergen Sommer told the Indianapolis Star.

Indy has shown a willingness to shake up the roster throughout the season.  Recent modifications to defensive personnel have proven useful, and receiving loans from MLS clubs is a good sign.  If the last month is any indication, Indy will be a club to deal with next year.

Atlanta Silverbacks

A year ago, the Silverbacks were in the Soccer Bowl. Nowadays, it seems like they're in another kind of bowl.

One of the historic cities in the #NASLGoldenEra, the modern Atlanta franchise has run up against some very hard times.  In the three half-seasons since winning the Spring of 2013, the 'Backs have finished seventh, eighth and tenth.  The club is on its third head coach this Fall.

Atlanta has the most losses, the fewest goals and (it follows) the worst differential in the league. 

Offensively, the Silverbacks have a nice one-two punch in Jaime Chávez and Junior Sandoval, two young dynamic players with a combined 16 goals.  Pablo Cruz is another young guy with offensive prowess.  But it hasn't been enough to keep Atlanta -- a club that was in line for a postseason berth before a nine-match winless freefall -- from plummeting out of the picture.

Here's hoping that the Silverbacks can build around their youth, create some stability and bring Atlanta back to its rightful place among the NASL pantheon.

To quote another legendary NFL figure:  "Just win, baby."