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Alabama
Power
Ratings
For Alabama High School Soccer
Revised
Wednesday, April 30, 2003 |
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How teams are ranked:
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- There is no mathematical
formula.
- No really - there is no
mathematical formula.
- How well your team does against
strong teams is the most important factor. That includes the top
15 to 20 teams in 6A Boys/Girls, Top 10 in 5A-1A Boys/Girls. That
means strength of schedule is very important. A school which is
18-0 against a cream-puff schedule may be ranked lower than a team
that is 3-15 against a top ten schedule. That 18-0 record may not
include any quality wins or ties while the 3-15 may include three
quality wins. This means the Alabama Power Rankings will differ
from the Birmingham News/Post Herald Rankings which tend to weigh
records more heavily than actual team strength.
- If you beat a team head to head
you will usually be ranked above that team but strength of
schedule will still make a difference in some cases.
- If your team wants to move
up, they need to beat a team that is ranked higher than them. One
exception to this rule is that they could move up in the rankings
without a significant win - IF a team ranked above them falls in
the rankings due to a loss.
- More recent games are weighted
more heavily than older games.
- Early season games when some
teams have players still involved in basketball playoffs are not
weighted as heavily as when the same team has their full squad
available.
- Games lost against out of state
teams will not hurt a team’s ranking but wins against out of state
teams can help a ranking.
- Head to head games are
considered strongly in ranking one team against another they have
played.
- When teams have played each
other more than once, the latest game is weighted more heavily.
That may be true even if one team has won 3 out of 4 games but
lost the most recent game.
- Lopsided wins against poor teams
are not included in these evaluations. If you are playing a weak
schedule you are penalized only in the sense that you will only be
ranked above the teams you have beaten so if you have a perfect
record but all the wins are against teams that are ranked low or
unranked you may still be #20. To move up you need to beat someone
that is ranked higher than you are.
- Losses against good or great
teams don't hurt much. Sometimes they don’t hurt at all.
- Win and loss records are not
important.
- Close wins are just as good as
big wins except in extreme cases. If you win 1-0 or 2-0 that's
good enough for me. A lot of coaches call off the dogs once they
are assured they are going to win. I know several coaches who will
immediately start playing bench players when their teams get up by
five goals even though they know their teams can easily 10-0
“mercy rule” the opposition.
- Losing by a lopsided 5-0 score
hurts unless it is against a Top 5 team. The exception is that I
don’t penalize teams for playing and losing to the Hoovers,
Briarwoods, Grissoms, Cullmans, John Carrolls, Huntsvilles, Ft.
Paynes, Randolphs, Altamonts, Oak Mountains, etc. And if your team
can stay within a goal or two of those teams when losing it may
actually help their ranking.
- Winning or losing by “kicks from
the mark” doesn’t help or hurt you except when compared
head-to-head against an opponent. I consider those games as ties
except for the head-to-head comparisons. Kicks from the mark is
not soccer - it is an artificial way of choosing a winner when
there is a time constraint. Most of the world understands
that a tie in soccer is not a bad thing.
- If a 1A team beats a 5A or 6A
team that may or may not help them. It all depends on the
relative strength of that team. If they team they beat is a
better team they should move up. If they are a worse team
they probably won't move up. It works in reverse also. If a
6A team beats a strong 1A team it may help tem move up.
Classifications are about school size (number of students) not
about team strength which is the important factor in the rankings.
- I consider coaches’ opinions in
ranking the teams. I get many, many opinions a week from coaches
and they are given a lot of weight and consideration.
- Every game is not weighted the
same. There are some cases when a coach, who knows his team will
certainly win a game, will decide to play his younger players to
give them experience. There are some late season games, before the
playoffs, when a team has cemented a playoff berth where a coach
will play his younger players against a tough opponent to avoid
injuries to starters and to give the youngsters game experience.
Or he may have a game scheduled against an opponent in a different
classification late in the season which means nothing as far as
the playoffs are concerned. He may decide to use that game to move
players into different positions to see how they perform in case
he needs to know who can play where later in the season. I try to
take all of those into account. With a strict mathematical formula
that wouldn’t be possible.
- None of these are hard and fast
rules. I try to see as many teams as I can and try to get as many
opinions from coaches, parents and players as possible.
- Injuries can be critical to a
team’s rank. A team, which loses several key players to injuries,
may drop drastically in the rankings with a loss or two despite a
great early season record.
- Making the state playoffs MAY
help your chances of being ranked higher because it gives you
another game against better competition. Conversely the loss that
knocks a team out of the playoffs will hurt a team’s ranking
significantly compared to teams still involved in playoffs. Not as
much because of the loss (which might be to a great team) but
because that team will no longer have a chance to beat a team that
is higher ranked than they are.
- Once the playoffs start teams
that lose will drop to a point where their final ranking will be
based on which teams they lost to. So if your record
indicates that your team lost to top teams you will be ranked
right below them. However, if you lose early in the playoffs
and your record shows that your team has lost to lower ranked
teams and only made the playoffs due to being located in a weaker
area; your team will drop significantly to a point that
your team will
be ranked above those teams you defeated and below the teams you
lost to. This means that a team that finishes third in an
area and does not make the playoffs still can finish the season
highly ranked if the two teams from their area do well in the
playoffs. This is in accordance with our principle that strength
of schedule is more important than wins and losses.
- The final #1 team will be the
team that wins the state championship. That will be true even if I
feel there is a better team out there.
- Don’t give too much importance
to these rankings or take them too seriously. The only rankings
that count begin when a team makes the state playoffs.
Let me know if you have any specific concerns about a certain
team. It helps me to have people question a ranking if they think
something is out of kilter.
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Okay
- still not satisfied. Just got to have a mathematical formula
- here's the old one we used to use:
These Alabama High School Soccer Rankings (APR) are based on
the Doppler-Wilmot rating system which is also used in college
football rankings. The rankings are based on the actual rating of
each team compared to other teams not just their win-loss records
which may not reflect the level of their competition. This
compilation is the only high school soccer rating system to rank
teams by combining the Doppler effect with the Wilmot Proviso, thus
achieving proportionate reciprocal capability. The Doppler effect is
a law in physics discovered by Christian Doppler, who lived from
1803 to 1853. The Wilmot Proviso was proposed by David Wilmot, who
lived from 1814 to 1868. Their meeting in 1851 was the foundation of
this system. Used within the context of this rating system, the term
state champion of high school soccer in any given season signifies
the school with the greatest analytic ratio of logarithmic
differential superiority. To learn more about the Doppler-Wilmot
system click here.
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